It’s hard to believe that the United States is only a few months away from deciding its fate for the next four years … and potentially things that trickle-down for decades.
Let’s look at what’s happening in the here and now and what the Vegas odds think about the upcoming elections.
President Donald Trump has been the front runner on the political odds boards since the odds reelection odds opened up about two years ago. But for a hot second there, Joe Biden pulled up evens with Trump and has now settled in as a -110 favorite, closely followed by Biden at +125.
However, there has been a bunch of stuff going on around the world, if you haven’t noticed. The King of all virus has rained on the entire world’s parade. So much so that there has been some speculation as to whether or not the November elections will even occur.
There are actually odds on this and if anyone is hoping the elections won’t happen, it’s not likely that a deadly pandemic will stop the party. The odds of the election taking place are -1500, which is pretty overwhelming.
That said, a side note about coronavirus is that it will have a detrimental effect on one party or the other.
The COVID blame game is thought by many pundits to be the determining factor for the November elections. He who casts the most effective stone will win the election. Right now, the Democratic party is doing a pretty good job of placing the blame on the current President. And let’s be honest, whether you support the current administration or not, he hasn’t made it easy on himself with all the backpedaling.
On the flip side, the Trump administration is doing a decent job at deflecting and in turn, placing the fault on the WHO, CDC, and various states and their respective governors for not following orders.
The idea is that whoever makes the most significant, lasting impression; painting the other party as the reason that COVID-19 blew through the United States like a wildfire, will win. But, we won’t know until we have the full picture. We still don’t know how bad it will get or how long this situation will last. Let alone, what the overall economic fallout will be when all is said and done.
Vegas Confidence Wavering or Just a Massive Hole in the Odds?
I found an interesting hole in the odds. Donald Trump is -110 to win the election and retain his position at the Whitehouse in the oval office. But when we look at props for the popular vote and electoral college, he is +225 win the electoral college and lose the popular vote. And he’s +140 to lose both the electoral college and the popular vote. Which out of those list of props, is the favorite.
So, I don’t understand the lines. It appears to be a glaring hole. If anything, we can almost be sure that Trump will lose the popular vote. But there is a really good chance that he wins the electoral college – just like last time around. So, why is he favored at minus-money to win the election, but plus-money in every electoral versus popular vote circumstance? After all, he’s +1400 to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college.
Basically, there is no point in betting on Joe Biden to win at +125. If Trump loses, it’s not going to have anything to do with the popular vote. For him to lose, he is going to have to lose the electoral, and if that happens, given his approval rating, the popular vote will be lost by default.
If you think Trump is going to win, there is a real value at +225 of him winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote. This right here is the line that seems to be a glaringly bad line. It should be closer to the -110 win line because that’s exactly how he will win. That is unless the boys in Vegas want us to think that he’ll win and listed a favorite line to get bettors to back Trump with their money … full-well knowing that he is destined to lose. Hence, these longer situational odds.
Very tricky. Very tricky, indeed. But you won’t fool us! We can smell the rotten election dish that you’re cooking.